Money Brief 1-2-3: Credit Surprises, Hidden Costs & the Art of Showing Up
A few things worth your attention. Not everything here will apply to your situation, but if something raises a question, let’s talk it through.
WORTH A THOUGHT
1. Two Construction Industries
Long-term interest rates are near 20-year highs, and residential construction has edged lower for two years, with roughly 280,000 permitted housing units still unstarted. Meanwhile, data center construction continues to expand, increasingly financed with borrowed money and seemingly unfazed by higher interest rates. One industry, two directions, and a reminder that interest rates don’t affect every business equally, or on the same timetable.
WORTH KNOWING
2. Follow the Workers
Higher interest rates are weighing on residential construction, while commercial and industrial trades continue to add jobs. The employment numbers tell the story.
|
+161,000 jobs
Nonresidential builders and specialty trades added 161,000 jobs from September 2024 to September 2026, reaching record employment. |
−98,000 jobs
Residential builders and specialty trades lost 98,000 jobs over the same period, as higher borrowing costs continued to weigh on housing. |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED. Seasonally adjusted, September 2024–September 2026.
WORTH DOING
3. What’s a prudent investor to do?
1. For your portfolio: Consider avoiding credit surprises and respect liquidity.
“Private credit,” “institutional access,” and “steady income” sound appealing, until you want your money back. This year, investors in several funds received less than half their requested withdrawals. As CFA Institute research reminds us, putting illiquid loans into a fund doesn’t make them liquid. The packaging changes. The risk doesn’t.
2. For your taxes: Mind tomorrow’s Medicare premiums.
Your 2026 income determines your Medicare premiums in 2028. That means a Roth conversion or large capital gain before December 31 could cost more than you think. On the other hand, retirees with qualifying self-employment income may be able to deduct Medicare premiums without itemizing, subject to business profit limits, and potentially reduce future Medicare premiums too. Let’s review these opportunities before year-end and coordinate with your CPA where appropriate. A little planning now may help prevent costly surprises later.
3. For the rest of your life: Master the art of showing up.
A 2026 review of 78 exercise studies found that adding more all-out sprints didn’t meaningfully improve aerobic fitness gains. What mattered more was sticking with the program longer. The best exercise plan isn’t necessarily the hardest.
This commentary reflects the author’s opinions as of the date of publication, is subject to change, and is not individualized advice. Information is from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investment Advisory Services are offered through Mariner Platform Solutions (MPS), an SEC-registered investment adviser. LockKeeper Wealth Partners and MPS are not affiliated entities. MPS does not provide legal or tax advice.
