Money Brief 1-2-3: the conversation you keep putting off
A few things worth your attention this month. Your financial situation is unique, so if something here raises a question, let me know and we can talk it through.
WORTH A THOUGHT
1. Reading
Greenwood, Shleifer, and You take up Eugene Fama’s challenge in Bubbles for Fama: if bubbles are real, spot one in advance. Between 1928 and 2012, a U.S. industry gained 100% or more in two years, and 100 percentage points more than the market, in forty episodes; Twenty-one later fell 40% or more within two years, versus a 14% base rate, but on average first rose another 30% over about six months, while the other nineteen didn’t fall 40% inside that window. The study measures odds, not timing. Being right and being early looked nearly identical from the inside.
WORTH KNOWING
2. Conditions met
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+164%
PHLX Semiconductor Index, 2 year price return, at its June 22, 2026 all-time high. Nasdaq, Inc., via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis According to the study, a run-up requires three conditions: ≥100% two-year industry return; ≥100-point two-year outperformance vs. the market; and ≥50% five-year return. The first is met.
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+37%
S&P 500 Index, 2 year price return, June 22, 2026. S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The 100+ point gap and 359% five-year gain meet the second and third conditions.
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WORTH DOING
3. What’s a prudent investor to do?
1. For your portfolio: Defensiveness may lag a benchmark; a funding shortfall loses the game. What matters is whether your plan still funds what it needs to, regardless of what the screen says. As we approach the fourth quarter, we’re updating cash flow projections and stress-testing the plan both ways.
2. For your taxes: The federal estate and gift tax exemption is now $15 million per individual, or $30 million for a married couple, but old estate documents may still be built for lower limits. Outdated formula clauses can create unnecessary trusts, reduce flexibility for a surviving spouse, and sacrifice valuable basis step-ups. Our review can help identify what actually needs attention before you take it to your attorney or CPA.
3. For the rest of your life: The paper’s lesson extends beyond markets: some things are foreseeable in probability and unknowable in timing so we tend to wait until the timing announces itself. If there’s a conversation you’ve been deferring – where the documents live, who holds the keys, what they would actually want – have it while it’s still a conversation, not a scramble. Those who wait tend to overestimate one factor: time.
This material is provided for informational purposes only and reflects the views of the author as of the date written. It is not intended as investment advice or a recommendation. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
